Uncivilly resistant

The Economist
(England)
Country Briefing
July 21st 2006

The loser looks unlikely ever to concede defeat

IF THE loser gets his way, the battle for Mexico's presidential election will be settled on the streets. On July 16th, several hundred thousand supporters of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the left-of-centre candidate, gathered in Mexico City to support their man's claim that he was robbed of victory in the election on July 2nd by fraud, or at least miscounting. He now plans a campaign of "civil resistance", another big rally on July 30th, and 24-hour vigils at 300 district offices where the ballot boxes are kept under military guard. Yet he risks overplaying his hand.

His disappointment is not hard to understand. Having long led in the opinion polls, the official count found that he had lost the election by 244,000 votes (0.58%) to Felipe Calderón of the ruling National Action Party. In papers filed with the Federal Electoral Tribunal, Mr López Obrador has challenged the count at 50,000 of the 130,000 polling stations. He wants a full recount--something which it is not clear that the tribunal can order.

The tribunal has until September 6th to rule. The challenger has yet to offer Mexicans any convincing evidence of irregularities. His campaign has also undermined its own case by wavering as to whether or not he will accept the tribunal's verdict if it goes against him. Jesús Ortega, one of Mr López Obrador's advisers, has said that even if Mr Calderón were to come out ahead in a recount, his victory would be illegitimate. That is because, Mr Ortega claims, Mexico's president, Vicente Fox, campaigned on Mr Calderón's behalf. This suggests Mr López Obrador's real aim is to have the election annulled, and a new one called.

Yet that might be a step too far even for some of Mr López Obrador's own supporters. Mexico has battled for years to eradicate fraud and to set up independent electoral institutions. The loser has every right to call for the tribunal to investigate any irregularities. But if he refuses to accept its verdict, he will have confirmed the charge that Mr Calderón threw at him during the campaign: that he is not a true believer in democracy and its institutions.